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Oil Pumps

Weekly Market Commentary 10/24/14

Oil Hits the SkidsOil Pumps

The S&P 500 fell 1% last week (October 13 – 17, 2014) in volatile trading, leading market participants and media pundits to speculate on how far the stock market slide—now just over 6% from the September 18, 2014, closing high — might go. In last week’s Weekly Market Commentary, “Pullback Perspective,” we cited the economic backdrop, central bank support, and valuations as reasons the pullback was unlikely to turn into a bear market (a 20% decline). This week we turn to an area that has already entered bear market territory and discuss our outlook for oil and the energy sector.

Why Does Oil Matter?

Oil has a significant impact on several key sectors of the economy:

  • ƒƒ Consumer spending. Consumers spend, on average, 4% of their income on energy (including oil, natural gas, refined gasoline, etc.). As a result, a sharp drop in energy costs can help provide a boost to consumer spending, particularly important as holiday shopping and winter heating season approach.
  • ƒƒ Capital spending. Energy accounts for one-quarter of all capital spending globally, more than any other sector. Oil and gas exploration and production is very capital intensive, and significant infrastructure investments are needed to support the U.S. energy boom.
  • ƒ Transport sector. Oil influences transports as a cost (fuel for airlines,shippers, trucks, etc.), but it also provides growth opportunities as an increasing amount of oil and petroleum products are transported by truck and rail due to the boom in U.S. energy production [Figure 1].

Keys to Finding a Floor

After falling 25% from its summer 2014 highs, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, a long-accepted benchmark for U.S. oil prices, began to find its footing in the $81 – 82 range late last week (October 13 – 17, 2014). We believe this lower range may hold for several reasons: Slower global growth is already reflected in oil demand forecasts.
Expectations for global oil demand have fallen significantly in recent months in response to slower growth in Europe, which is teetering on the brink of another recession. The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its outlook for 2014 oil demand growth by 200,000 barrels per day, or 22%, from the agency’s prior forecast of 900,000. To give some perspective,…

Read Full Report here Weekly Market Commentary 10202014

troy clark

Q&A With Troy Clark

Member Spotlight Interview

troy clarkInterview Conducted by: Kim Khoury
Person Interviewed: Troy Clark
Title/Position: Owner/President
Company: Clark Machinery Sales
Company’s website: www.clarkmachinerysales.com
What year did you join the MDNA: 2007

Q: What was your first Job with the company and how did you get it?

A: I was living in Chicago looking for part time work and answered an ad in the Chicago Tribune.  I started working for Machinery Marketing Incorporated in 1997 doing telemarketing and then moved onto a position in sales.

Q: What is the biggest challenge for your company in the next 5 years and do you have any tips on how you will conquer it?

A: Maintaining our Diligence at doing the mundane -Having employees stay sharp, being engaged, inspired and diligent in tasks in down markets.  If the Clark Machinery team is constantly improving their process they hope to stay busy when the market isn’t hot.

Q: What is one thing you would you pass on to MDNA’s younger, next generation Chicago-Tribune-10-11-2012leaders about this business or industry?

A: When selling and buying machinery- sincerity with your customer and acting in a timely manner goes a long way

Q: What’s your favorite thing to do in your spare time?

A: Exploring and dining at great restaurants with my wife.

Q: What would be your best achievement to date?

A: Finally developing the Desire for Endless Process Improvement

Q: What is your favorite type of machinery or machine tool and why?

A: Any type of Haas equipment.  It’s refreshing that a manufacture is transparent.  They take the guesswork out of the replacement cost.  They are willing to show how their machines are originally equipped.  They have great tools for used machinery dealers in the secondary market.haas-2010-machines

Q: What do you like about your job?

A: Coming to work and solving problems with employees and for customers.

Q: What is the most useful thing you have participated in or attended that you can apply to your job or has helped your career?

A: The last weekend with the Pros put on by the Cleveland and Ohio Valley Chapters.  From the manufacturing tours, to visiting the dealer’s warehouses and most importantly the networking with other dealers, the event was first class from start to finish.

550 463 456 494

Pictures- 2013 Weekend with the Pros, MDNA Educational Event

Q: What did you want to be when you grew up?

A: To sing bass in a gospel quartet.   I remember thinking as a child, “now that’s a real man.”

Q: If you had a year off, what would you want to do?

A: If money was no object, I would love to travel through Europe with my family, refining my foreign language skills, reliving history.  And of course, lots of eating and drinking.

Weekly Economic Commentary image

Weekly Economic Commentary 10/13/14

Weekly Economic Commentary imageGauging Global Growth in 2014 & 2015
Update: Acceleration Expected

The outlook for global growth is important to investors, since it defines the ultimate pace of activity that creates value for countries, companies, and consumers. As investors begin to digest the S&P 500 earnings reports
for the third quarter of 2014, we provide an update on how consensus
estimates for economic growth for 2014 and 2015 — in the United States and
worldwide — have evolved over the past few years.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecasts for both
2014 and 2015 last week (October 6–10, 2014), noting that the outlooks for
the Eurozone, Brazil, Russia, and Japan have deteriorated since the summer
of 2014, the last time it released a forecast. The IMF’s downgrade of global
growth — along with its warning about a “frothy” equity market — was cited
by many market participants as the catalyst for the equity market sell-off and
related volatility last week.
As we have noted in our previous updates on the global growth outlook,
the new forecast from the IMF should not have generated the reaction it
did. Typically, when the IMF releases a forecast, the majority of financial
market participants take little notice of the report. Why? Because consensus
forecasts for global gross domestic product (GDP) growth are available
monthly from sources like Bloomberg News, and because markets constantly
react to changes in projected paths of economic growth amid the daily,
weekly, and monthly drumbeat of economic data and global events.
Why Global GDP Growth Matters

In the past, prospects for U.S. economic growth garnered the most attention
from market participants, but in recent years markets have focused more
on the prospects for global GDP growth. Why does global GDP growth
matter? As we have noted in prior Weekly Economic Commentaries, financial
markets — especially equity markets — focus intently on earnings. Broadly
speaking, earnings growth is driven by “top-line” growth, or revenue
growth, less the costs incurred earning that revenue, with labor accounting
for more than two-thirds of total costs. A good proxy for global revenue
growth is…

Read Full Report here Weekly Economic Commentary 10132014

Market image

Weekly Market Commentary 10/13/14

Market imagePullback Perspective

This latest stock market pullback has provided an unwelcome reminder that stocks do not always go up in a straight line. Even within powerful bull markets such as this one, pullbacks of 5 – 10% have been quite common and

do not mean the bull market is nearing an end. In this week’s commentary,
we attempt to put the pullback into perspective. We look beyond this latest
bout of volatility and share our thoughts on the current bull market, compare
it with prior bull markets at this stage, and discuss why we do not think it’s
coming to an end.

Pullbacks Don’t Mean the End of the Bull Market
Pullbacks such as this one, which has reached 5%, have been normal.
Sometimes stocks get ahead of themselves. When they do, investor concerns
can be magnified and profit taking might take stocks down more than might be
justified by the fundamental news. We see this latest pullback as normal within
the context of an ongoing and powerful bull market and do not see its causes
(European and Chinese growth concerns, the rise of Islamic State militants,
Ebola, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, etc.) as justifying something much bigger.
The S&P 500 has now experienced 19 pullbacks during this 5.5-year-old bull
market, during which the index has risen by 182% (cumulative return of 217%
including dividends). The 1990s bull market included 13 pullbacks; there were
12 during the 2002 – 2007 bull market. At an average of three to four pullbacks
per year, we are in-line with history [Figure 1]. We understand the nervousness
out there, but what we have just experienced looks pretty normal at this point.
When volatility has been so low for so long, normal volatility does not feel..

Read Full Report here Weekly Market Commentary 10132014

joseph finn and Paul new england chapter sponsor

New Officers Elected for New England Chapter

Reported 10.10.2014

The New England Chapter met on October 9th, 2014 at the Harpoon Brewery in Boston, MA for a private plant tour, catered dinner and a significant meeting, where a new slate of officers was voted in to represent their chapter.

Event Sponsor Ross Finn with brother Paul Finn (pictured left) of Joseph Finn Co., Inc. expressed how much this event meant to them and how excited they were to be involved and supporting this group.

Nate Smith of MDNA member firm, Absolute Machinery Corp. (outgoing New England Chapter Chairman) was thankful for the great turnout and participation of his fellow chapter members. He stated that he is “prepared and eager to pass the reigns of leadership over to the new Chapter Chairman, Kevin Brewster of MDNA member firm On Target Machine Brokers.”

Kevin Brewster remarked I am very much looking forward to serving to the best of my ability. I am very proud to be part of the organization and look forward to being involved for many years to come.” 

Kevin Brewster (pictured below) “leading the pack.”

Newly Elected New England MDNA Officers:

Chairman:  Kevin Brewster, On Target Machine Brokers, LLC

Treasurer: Ross Finn, CEA Joseph Finn Co., Inc.

Board Representative: Kevin Brewster, On Target Machine Brokers, LLC

Membership Chairman: Nathan Smith, CEA, Absolute Machinery Corporation

Alt. Board Rep.: R.F. “Casey” Mulqueen, CEA, Strategic Solutions for Industry

For More Pictures of the Event See Album Post

92914

Weekly Market Commentary 9/29/14

Grading on a Curve (the Yield Curve, That Is)92914

Kids are back in school and have started taking tests. Some of those tests
are graded on a curve, meaning that students are graded based on their
score relative to the rest of the class. In terms of stock market indicators,
one that gets an A+ and ranks at the top of its class is another type of
curve — the yield curve. In fact, this indicator receives a perfect score (seven
for seven) in signaling recessions over the past 50 years.

The goal for all investors is to find indicators to help anticipate big down
moves, and the yield curve has been about as good as it gets on that
score. One of the Five Forecasters featured in our Mid-Year Outlook 2014:
The Investor’s Almanac Field Notes, the yield curve passes the test as
an indicator that has consistently signaled increasing fragility of the U.S.
economy and a transition to the late stage of the economic cycle, an
oncoming recession, and ensuing market downturn.
Many market participants have become worried (if not obsessed) about

Read Full Report here Weekly Market Commentary 09292014

93014

Weekly Economic Commentary 9/29/14

Housing Hiatus?93014

The most recent figures on gross domestic product (GDP) — the broadest
measure of economic activity — revealed that residential investment (a.k.a.
housing) grew at an 8.8% annualized pace between the first and second
quarters of 2014. As a result, housing contributed 0.3 percentage points to the
overall 4.6% gain in GDP in Q2. It was the first time since Q3 2013 that housing
added to GDP growth; but it marked the 12th quarter of the last 15, dating back
to late 2010, that housing has made a positive contribution to GDP. Prior to
that, between late 2005 and late 2010, housing had been a drag on the overall
economy in 17 of the 20 quarters (or five years), as the economy endured the
housing-induced Great Recession and its aftermath [Figure 1]…

Read Full Report here Weekly Economic Commentary 09292014

Weekly Econom. Commentary 09222014

Weekly Economic Commentary 9/24/14

MIND THE GAPWeekly Econom. Commentary 09222014

On September 17, 2014, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policymaking arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), met for the sixth time this year. On the one hand, the FOMC surprised markets by announcing “how” it would exit from quantitative easing (QE) and reduce the size of its balance sheet in the coming years. On the other hand, the FOMC calmed markets by not making any substantive changes to its forward guidance to the public and financial markets on when it would begin raising rates.

The statement released after the meeting once again said that the FOMC
would keep rates low for a “considerable time” after QE ends. However,
the new set of economic and rate forecasts by FOMC members indicated
an earlier start to rate hikes than the forecasts made at the conclusion of
the June 2014 FOMC meeting and a slightly steeper path for the fed funds
rate once rate hikes commenced. Some market participants — ourselves
included — thought that perhaps the FOMC would switch to a more
explicitly data-dependent approach (how quickly the economy is growing,
where the unemployment rate is, what the inflation rate is, etc.). The FOMC,
however, decided to strike a more balanced tone, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen
repeatedly stressed in her post-FOMC meeting press conference that…

Read Full Report here Weekly Economic Commentary 09222014

Weekly Market Commentary 09222014 tn

Weekly Market Commentary 9/24/14

Don’t Fight the Fed ECB? (Part 2 of 2)Weekly Market Commentary 09222014 tn There have been a lot of bad movie sequels. Remember Ghostbusters II? Grease 2? Blues Brothers 2000? In the case of this Weekly Market Commentary, “Don’t Fight the Fed ECB? (Part 2 of 2),” we hope you find the sequel at least as good as the original, perhaps something closer to The Godfather: Part II than The Godfather: Part III.

Last week we answered the question of whether the latest bold stimulus measures by the European Central Bank (ECB) are a buy signal for European equities. We highlighted key differences between buying Europe now and the United States several years ago during the start of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) quantitative easing (QE) programs. The different pictures for growth, valuations, and corporate profits in Europe versus the United States lead us to conclude that we should take a broader view to evaluate the investment opportunity in Europe. To that end, this week we take a deeper dive into the investment opportunity in Europe and evaluate fundamentals, valuations, and technicals — none of which we find particularly compelling at this time.

Read Full Report here Weekly Market Commentary 09222014

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Hotel Scam Alert

Traveling Somewhere? Read this Hotel Scam Alerto-TELEPHONE-SCAM-facebook

The following scam was passed on to us by John Conroy of MDNA Member firm Machinery International.  We are sensitive to the scams that bombard our businesses every day.

This scam can affect us when we travel so please be on guard.

Here is what happens:

You arrive at your hotel and check in at the front desk. Typically when checking in, you give the front desk your credit card (for any charges to your room). You go to your room and settle in and everything is good.

The hotel receives a call and the caller asks for (as an example) room 620 – which happens to be your room. The phone rings in your room, you answer and the person on the other end says the following: ‘This is the front desk. When checking in, we came across a problem with your charge card information. Please re-read me your credit card number and verify the last 3 digits numbers at the reverse side of your charge card.’

Not thinking anything is wrong, since the call seems to come from the front desk you oblige. But unfortunately it was a scam by someone calling from outside the hotel. They have asked for a random room number, then asked you for your credit card and address information. They sound so professional, that you think you are talking to the front desk.

If you ever encounter this scenario on your travels, tell the caller that you will be down to the front desk to clear up any problems. Then, go to the front desk or call directly and ask if there was a problem. If there was no problem, inform the manager of the hotel that someone tried to scam you of your credit card information, impersonating a front desk employee.

This was sent by someone who has been conned and is still cleaning up the mess.

ANYONE travelling should be aware of this.