Market participants and the financial media have recently been hyper focused on the sell-off in Chinese equity prices, the sluggish pace of the Chinese economy, and the implications of both for global growth. The results thus far suggest that global growth in 2015 is indeed accelerating versus 2014. We last wrote about global growth in mid-July 2015 (“Gauging Global Growth: An Update for 2015 & 2016”), noting that the market continues to expect that global gross domestic product (GDP) growth will accelerate in 2015, 2016, and 2017, aided by lower oil prices and stimulus from two of the three leading central banks in the world. Since then, the United States (23% of global GDP), China (13%), the United Kingdom (4%), South Korea (2%), Indonesia (1%), Sweden (1%), and Singapore (less than 1%) have reported Q2 GDP. Together, those countries account for nearly 45% of global GDP. Second quarter 2015 GDP in four of the seven nations beat or matched consensus expectations (China, Indonesia, the United Kingdom, and Sweden), while five of the seven countries reported results that either were in-line with or accelerated versus the prior period (China, the United States, Indonesia, the United Kingdom, and Sweden).
This week (August 9 – 15, 2015), another six countries are scheduled to report Q2 GDP figures, including the Eurozone (24% of global GDP), Japan (6%), Russia (2%), Poland (1%), Thailand (less than 1%), and Malaysia (less than 1%). Together, these nations — a nice mix of both developed (Eurozone and Japan) and emerging market (Russia, Thailand, Poland, and Malaysia) countries — account for 35% of global GDP, which means by… Read the full Report here: Economic Commentary 08102015