Economics & Market Highlights

Weekly Economic Commentary image FORECAST FOR CLEAR SKIES August 28, 2015 - LEI STILL SHOWS LOW ODDS OF RECESSION Weekly Economic Commentary By John J. Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial   Last week, global equity markets, including in the U.S., were driven lower by a variety of fears, most notably the weakness in China’s economy and financial markets, as well as the Chinese government’s response (or lack thereof). As […]
economic image 81015 GLOBAL GDP TRACKER: SUMMER 2015 EDITION August 18, 2015 - Market participants and the financial media have recently been hyper focused on the sell-off in Chinese equity prices, the sluggish pace of the Chinese economy, and the implications of both for global growth. The results thus far suggest that global growth in 2015 is indeed accelerating versus 2014. We last wrote about global growth in mid-July 2015 (“Gauging Global Growth: […]
econom 71515 GAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH July 15, 2015 - AN UPDATE FOR 2015 & 2016 Weekly Economic Commentary by John J. Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial  The market continues to expect that global gross domestic product (GDP) growth will accelerate in 2015, 2016, and 2017, aided by lower oil prices and stimulus from two of the three leading central banks in the world. The prospect […]
market 7.8.15 GREECE PLAYBOOK July 10, 2015 - By Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder Market Strategist, LPL Financial Weekly Market Commentary, July 10, 2015 Greece’s critical referendum took place this weekend and the Greek people resoundingly voted “no” — rejecting the latest bailout deal from creditors. The referendum result, which some interpreted as a vote to exit the Eurozone, throws Greece’s future […]
Weekly Economic Commentary image THE FED AFTER THE “NO” July 9, 2015 - By John J. Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial Weekly Economic Commentary, 7/9/2015 The “no” vote in the Greek referendum on July 5, 2015, will potentially raise the level of economic and financial market volatility in the coming weeks as global investors assess the market and economic risks associated with an increasingly likely Greek exit (Grexit) […]
6815 market ACA RULING COULD MAKE HEALTHCARE SECTOR MORE AFFORDABLE June 12, 2015 - By Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder Market Strategist, LPL Financial Weekly Market Commentary, Posted June 12, 2015 The upcoming Supreme Court decision regarding premium subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (ACA, aka Obamacare) may create a buying opportunity for the healthcare sector. We believe the odds favor the status quo (all subsidies legal regardless […]
682015 BEIGE BOOK: WINDOW ON MAIN STREET June 9, 2015 - By John J. Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial Weekly Economic Commentary, May 9, 2015 BEIGE BOOK SUGGESTS CONTINUED MODEST ECONOMIC GROWTH The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing at a pace that is at or above its long-term trend, indicating that some of the “transitory factors” that held the U.S. […]
Job Openings and
Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for March 2015. WATCHING WAGES May 13, 2015 - By John J. Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial Weekly Economic Commentary, May 13, 2015 The April 2015 Employment Situation report (released on Friday, May 8, 2015) indicated that the labor market bounced back in April 2015 after a difficult March, but that wages — as measured by average hourly earnings — remained tepid, up just […]
Weekly Economic Commentary image FORECAST FOR CLEAR SKIES: LEI SHOWS LOW ODDS OF RECESSION March 25, 2015 - By John Canally, CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial Weekly Economic Commentary, March 23, 2015 Without question, the key event for financial markets last week (March 16 – 20, 2015) was the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to remove the word “patient” from its policy statement, putting market participants on watch for a rate hike later this year. But, as […]
U.S. Dollar index and EUR-USD currency spot exchange rate trends moving in opposite directions THE DOLLAR’S RIPPLE EFFECT March 25, 2015 - By Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial David Tonaszuck, CMT Technical Strategist, LPL Financial Weekly Market Commentary In technical analysis, “intermarket analysis” looks at the way in which various markets interact. Intermarket analysis primarily looks at four market sectors: currencies, commodities, bonds, and stocks. From a technical analyst’s perspective, focusing our attention on only one market without considering […]
Market image A VERY DIFFERENT NASDAQ March 4, 2015 - By Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeff Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial Weekly Market Commentary The Nasdaq Composite just hit 5000 today as this report was going to press and is nearing its all-time record closing high of 5048 set during the peak of the internet bubble in March 2000. The 15-year journey back to […]
3215 THE MISERY INDEX March 4, 2015 - Weekly Market Commentary By John Canally Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial THE MISERY INDEX: JUNE 1980 In June 1980, the U.S. economy was just exiting the first of two back-to-back recessions. The June 2, 1980, cover of TIME magazine was “The Big Blowup,” referring not to the awful state of the U.S. economy, but to the recent eruption […]
21915 economic infographic GLOBAL GDP TRACKER February 19, 2015 - By John Canally Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial  The top 25 global economies make up 90% of global gross domestic product (GDP). Through Friday, February 13, 2015, 13 of these economies (including countries and political unions) have already reported Q4 2014 GDP results, including the four largest economies (U.S., Eurozone, China, and India). As this commentary was being prepared […]
21915 ENERGY SECTOR OUTLOOK: WHAT WE ARE WATCHING February 19, 2015 - Weekly Market Commentary By Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeff Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial No sector is getting more attention right now than energy. Market participants are attracted to the potential upside after both oil and the energy sector suffered substantial declines in recent months. Many see the sector as cheap, something that is […]
Market 2915 crop EARNINGS SEASON HIGHLIGHTS AND LOWLIGHTS February 11, 2015 - Weekly Market Commentary By Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeff Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial Despite the massive drag from the energy sector and the negative impact of a strong U.S. dollar, fourth quarter 2014 earnings are on track to exceed the prior Thomson-tracked consensus estimate of 4.2% (as of quarter end on December 31, […]
economic 2915 crop EUROPE: THE ROAD TO RECOVERY? February 10, 2015 - Weekly Economic Commentary By John Canally Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial In the wake of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to embark on a bond buying program (quantitative easing or QE), policymakers and investors alike are looking for signs that the program is working. Although it is still too soon to tell — QE in Europe was […]
1.28.15 NO DEFLATING THE U.S. DOLLAR January 28, 2015 - Weekly Market Commentary Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeff Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial Member FINRA/SIPC Unlike the footballs that the New England Patriots used in the AFC Championship game against the Indianapolis Colts, the U.S. dollar has remained well inflated. The dollar, which has been trending higher for nearly four years now, rose 13% in […]
12815 GAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH January 28, 2015 - AN UPDATE FOR 2015 & 2016 Weekly Economic Commentary John Canally Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial The outlook for global growth is important to investors, since it defines the ultimate pace of activity that creates value for countries, companies, and consumers. As investors digest the S&P 500 earnings reports for the fourth quarter of 2014, we provide an […]
economic pic 1.15.15 DRILLING INTO THE LABOR MARKET January 16, 2015 - Weekly Economic Commentary John Canally Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial Last Friday, January 9, 2015, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Employment Situation report, providing financial markets and the public at large with the state of the labor market as 2014 ended. The U.S. economy created another 252,000 net new jobs in December […]
Consumer discretionary (CD) Sector historically has benefited from big drops in oil. THE BRIGHT SIDE OF CHEAP OIL January 16, 2015 - Weekly Market Commentary Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeff Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial Earnings season is here and, as we wrote in our earnings preview last week (“A Tale of Two Earnings Seasons”), low oil prices and the energy sector will be the market’s main focus. Energy companies begin to report earnings this week, […]
LPL 2015 OUTLOOK 1 Outlook for 2015, LPL Financial December 22, 2014 - Written by Douglas M. O’Rear, AIF®  - Chandler, O’Rear & Associates Looking ahead to 2015, I see a year that will be marked by transitions. Likely changes in monetary policy around the world, the return of volatility, and the recent shift in the political balance of Congress could mean 2015 is a year that will […]
12114 Weekly Market Commentary December 5, 2014 - Can Stocks Deliver the Goods in 2015? 12.5.2014 Powerful, Nearly Six-Year-Old Bull Market Should Continue We believe stocks will deliver mid- to high-single-digit returns in 2015, with a focus on earnings over valuations. We believe 3% economic growth, benign global monetary policy, and a more favorable policy climate from Washington indicate that the powerful, nearly six-year-old bull market […]
economic 1212014 Weekly Economic Commentary December 3, 2014 - U.S. Economic Growth Picks Up Overseas, policies already in place — and those that we expect to be enacted over the course of 2015 — are likely to be big drivers of global growth. We expect the U.S. economy will expand at a rate of 3% or slightly higher in 2015, which matches the average growth rate over […]
Market image 111914 Weekly Market Commentary November 19, 2014 - Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging The S&P 500 Index hit another set of fresh record highs last week (November 10 – 14, 2014) and has achieved the midpoint of our total return forecast (10 –15%) for the year with a 12% return year to date. While we continue to recommend keeping the majority of equity allocations in the […]
Economic image 111914 Weekly Economic Commentary November 19, 2014 - Japan Check-In: Will the Weak Q3 GDP Reading Draw a Policy Response? Japan reported a 1.6% annualized decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2014 over the weekend of November 14 – 16, 2014. Policymakers in Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government and at the Bank of Japan (BOJ), as well as most […]
Market Image 11314 Weekly Market Commentary 11/6/2014 November 6, 2014 - S&P Is Not GDP U.S. economic growth has been subpar — right around 2% — during much of the ongoing economic expansion. Yet, the S&P 500 has returned nearly 230% cumulatively since the bear market low on March 9, 2009. How did that happen and is it justified? Before trying to answer to those questions, it is worth […]
Economic image 11314 Weekly Economic Commentary 11/6/14 November 6, 2014 - QE Ended, Now What? The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policymaking arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met last week (October 27 – 31, 2014) and decided, as was widely expected, to end its bond purchase program known as quantitative easing, or QE. While the FOMC retained its promise to keep rates low for a “considerable time” after QE ends, […]
Fed BEIGE BOOK Weekly Economic Commentary 10/24/14 October 24, 2014 - Beige Book: Window on Main Street No Signs of Global Growth Scare Impacting Main Street as Modest to Moderate Economic Growth Continues The Beige Book is a qualitative assessment of the U.S. economy and each of the 12 Federal Reserve (Fed) districts. We believe the Beige Book is best interpreted quantitatively by measuring how the descriptors change over […]
Oil Pumps Weekly Market Commentary 10/24/14 October 24, 2014 - Oil Hits the Skids The S&P 500 fell 1% last week (October 13 – 17, 2014) in volatile trading, leading market participants and media pundits to speculate on how far the stock market slide—now just over 6% from the September 18, 2014, closing high — might go. In last week’s Weekly Market Commentary, “Pullback Perspective,” we cited the economic […]
Weekly Economic Commentary image Weekly Economic Commentary 10/13/14 October 15, 2014 - Gauging Global Growth in 2014 & 2015 Update: Acceleration Expected The outlook for global growth is important to investors, since it defines the ultimate pace of activity that creates value for countries, companies, and consumers. As investors begin to digest the S&P 500 earnings reports for the third quarter of 2014, we provide an update on how […]
Market image Weekly Market Commentary 10/13/14 October 15, 2014 - Pullback Perspective This latest stock market pullback has provided an unwelcome reminder that stocks do not always go up in a straight line. Even within powerful bull markets such as this one, pullbacks of 5 – 10% have been quite common and do not mean the bull market is nearing an end. In this week’s commentary, we […]
92914 Weekly Market Commentary 9/29/14 October 1, 2014 - Grading on a Curve (the Yield Curve, That Is) Kids are back in school and have started taking tests. Some of those tests are graded on a curve, meaning that students are graded based on their score relative to the rest of the class. In terms of stock market indicators, one that gets an A+ […]
93014 Weekly Economic Commentary 9/29/14 October 1, 2014 - Housing Hiatus? The most recent figures on gross domestic product (GDP) — the broadest measure of economic activity — revealed that residential investment (a.k.a. housing) grew at an 8.8% annualized pace between the first and second quarters of 2014. As a result, housing contributed 0.3 percentage points to the overall 4.6% gain in GDP in […]
Weekly Econom. Commentary 09222014 Weekly Economic Commentary 9/24/14 September 24, 2014 - MIND THE GAP On September 17, 2014, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policymaking arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), met for the sixth time this year. On the one hand, the FOMC surprised markets by announcing “how” it would exit from quantitative easing (QE) and reduce the size of its balance sheet in the coming years. On the other […]
Weekly Market Commentary 09222014 tn Weekly Market Commentary 9/24/14 September 24, 2014 - Don’t Fight the Fed ECB? (Part 2 of 2) There have been a lot of bad movie sequels. Remember Ghostbusters II? Grease 2? Blues Brothers 2000? In the case of this Weekly Market Commentary, “Don’t Fight the Fed ECB? (Part 2 of 2),” we hope you find the sequel at least as good as the […]
9.15.14 market Weekly Market Commentary- 9/15/2014 September 16, 2014 - Don’t Fight the Fed ECB? (Part 1 of 2) The European Central Bank (ECB) announced bold stimulus measures, including further cuts to key interest rates and an asset-backed securities (ABS) purchase plan, on September 4, 2014. The moves are an acknowledgment of the recent deterioration in the Eurozone economy and increased deflation risk. This decision […]
9.15.14 Weekly Economic Commentary- 9/15/2014 September 16, 2014 - Fall FOMC Watch On Tuesday, September 16 and Wednesday, September 17, 2014, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold the sixth of its eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings of the year. This meeting will include a press conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and FOMC members’ forecasts for the economy, the timing of the […]
7.21 weekly market image Weekly Market Commentary – 07/21/2014 July 21, 2014 - Is Congress Contemplating QE4? This past Sunday marked the 45th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing, when American astronauts Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin became the first to set foot on the moon. If they had stayed there, what would their tax rate have been? The number of U.S. corporations seeking a “tax inversion” seems to be soaring […]
7.21 weekly Economic  image Weekly Economic Commentary – 07/21/2014 July 16, 2014 - Beige Book: Window on Main Street Modest-to-Moderate Economic Growth Continues The Beige Book is a qualitative assessment of the U.S. economy and each of the 12 Federal Reserve (Fed) Districts. We believe the Beige Book is best interpreted quantitatively by measuring how the descriptors change over time. The latest edition of the Fed Beige Book, released last Wednesday, July […]
7.14 weekly market image Weekly Market Commentary – 07/14/2014 July 14, 2014 - Counting Down the Months After five-and-a-half years of keeping short-term rates in a range of 0 – 0.25%, many market participants believe the Federal Reserve (Fed) is now about 12 months away from hiking interest rates. This may affect markets in the months and quarters ahead as investors begin to brace for a change in […]
7.14 weekly economic image Weekly Economic Commentary – 7/14/2014 July 10, 2014 - Gauging Global Growth in 2014 & 2015 Update: Developed Markets Grow, While Emerging Markets Slow The outlook for global growth is important to investors, since it defines the ultimate pace of activity that creates value for countries, companies, and consumers. This week, as investors begin to digest the S&P 500 earnings reports for the second quarter of 2014, we […]